Brexit- our prospects

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The highlight of the Broxbourne All Members Meeting on 30 June was a talk by Andy Ross. Andy is a Labour Party CLP Parliamentary Spokesperson. Economist High Oak Enterprises, Fellow of the Academy of Social Science, Visiting Professor Loughborough and Visiting Research Fellow Leeds, Associate Lecturer Birkbeck, Patron of the Economics Network. Member of Council Academy of Social Science.  His most recent publication is “It’s The Economy, Stupid: Economics for Voters” which he co-wrote with Vicky Pryce and Peter Urwin.

Andy’s talk was entitled: “Brexit – our prospects”. Some of his key messages were:

  • That expert economists usually get the predictions right, despite what the media say, and they predicted short-term volatility and poor long-term growth if there were a Leave result.
  • The “shocks” to the economy so far have been even greater than after the 2008 credit crunch.
  • Uncertainty is bad for economies and there are already signs of decreased investment which will lead to decreased productivity.
  • Leave voters were likely to believe in a negative impact of immigrants economically. The truth is they actually fuel the economy, and increase wages by causing increased productivity. They increase services and decrease the ratio of national debt to GDP.

A number of issues were raised in a lively discussion and some of the points he made in response to questions were:

  • That Mark Carney won’t be able to raise interest rates and therefore pensions and annuities will be low.
  • There has been a huge increase in racist attacks. Racism and a recession are a dangerous combination.
  • That Labour should reverse austerity and that most economists disagree with austerity.
  • A National Investment Bank would also be a good idea.

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